Risk Terrain Modeling Research

Find out where and how place-based safety works around the world

Journal Publications

Intelligent Policing: Application of Ontology, Predictive Analytics, and Convolutional Neural Networks in Support of Operational Planning and Routing, 2025 (Pt)

Assessing Crime History as a Predictor: Exploring Hotspots of Violent and Property Crime in Malmö, Sweden, 2025 (PDF)

Crime and Features of the Built Environment Predicting Risk of Fatal Overdose: A Comparison of Rural and Urban Ohio Counties with Risk Terrain Modeling, 2024

A spatial analysis of mental health-related calls for service in Atlantic City, New Jersey, 2024

Group-Motivated and Periodic Fire Setting for Terrorism in Urban Landscapes: An Analysis in Time and Space, 2024

Predicting Public Violent Crime Using Register and OpenStreetMap Data: A Risk Terrain Modeling Approach Across Three Cities of Varying Size, 2024

Using Risk Terrain Modeling for the Risk Assessment of Explosive ATM Attacks, 2023

The ability of place-based risk factors to predict hate crime, 2023

Does routine activity theory still matter during COVID-19 restrictions? The geography of sexual assaults before, during, and after COVID-19 restrictions, 2023

Geo-spatial risk factor analysis for drug overdose death in South Florida from 2014 to 2019, and the independent contribution of social determinants of health, 2023

Crime, Space, and Race: A Spatial Analysis of Assaults with Victim Race and Residence as Predictors, 2023

Risk Terrain and Multilevel Modeling of Street Robbery Distribution in Baltimore City, 2023

The Essex Risk-Based Policing Initiative: Evidence-Based Practices in Problem Analysis and Crime Prevention in the United Kingdom, 2023

Analysing and communicating vulnerability to crime at micro-places: An empirical application of how to improve the visual representation of a spatial crime risk assessment in Iztapalapa, Mexico City, 2023

Exploring the Influence of Elements of the Social and Physical Environment on Neighborhood Gun Crime, 2021

Assessing the Differential Impact of Vacancy on Criminal Violence in the City of St. Louis, MO, 2021

Disorder or Disadvantage: Investigating the Tension Between Neighborhood Social Structure and the Physical Environment on Local Violence, 2021

Data-Informed and Place-Based Violent Crime Prevention: The Kansas City, Missouri Risk-Based Policing Initiative, 2021

Data-informed crime prevention at convenience stores in Atlantic City, 2021

Systematic review and meta-analysis of risk terrain modelling (RTM) as a spatial forecasting method, 2021

Understanding the Multi-level Interactions Between Physical Environment and Neighborhood Characteristics in Assessing Vulnerability to Crime in Micro-places, 2021

Can information about “safe places” reduce female victimisation in Honduras?, 2021

Comparison of near-Repeat, Machine Learning and Risk Terrain Modeling for Making Spatiotemporal Predictions of Crime, 2020

Applying Crime Pattern Theory and Risk Terrain Modeling to Examine Environmental Crime in Cambodia, 2020

Exploring the geography of suicide threats and suicide attempts: An application of Risk Terrain Modeling, 2020

Pharmacies and features of the built environment associated with opioid overdose: A geospatial comparison of rural and urban regions in Alabama, USA, 2020

Cholera deaths in Soho, London, 1854: Risk Terrain Modeling for epidemiological investigations, 2020

Unpacking Spatio-temporal Differences of Risk for Crime: An Analysis in Little Rock, AR, 2020

Tracking Risk for Crime Throughout the Day: An Examination of Jersey City Robberies, 2020

Risk of Robbery in a Tourist Destination: A Monthly Examination of Atlantic City, New Jersey, 2020

Environmental Factors Influencing Urban Homicide Clearance Rates: A Spatial Analysis of New York City, 2020

Risky Business: Examining the 80-20 Rule in Relation to a RTM Framework, 2020

Pharmacies and features of the built environment associated with opioid overdose: A geospatial comparison of rural and urban regions in Alabama, USA, 2020

Can we Trust Crime Predictors and Crime Categories? Expansions on the Potential Problem of Generalization, 2019

Forecasting homicide in the red stick: Risk terrain modeling and the spatial influence of urban blight on lethal violence in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, 2019

Risk Terrain Modeling: Seasonality and Predictive Validity, 2019

Risk factor and high-risk place variations across different robbery targets in Denver, Colorado, 2019

Crime in an Affluent City: Applications of Risk Terrain Modeling for Residential and Vehicle Burglary in Coral Gables, Florida, 2004–2016, 2019

Risk Factors for Violent Dissident Republican Incidents in Belfast: A Comparison of Bombings and Bomb Hoaxes, 2019

Using Vulnerability and Exposure to Improve Robbery Prediction and Target Area Selection, 2019

A Geospatial Analysis of Illicit Marijuana Cultivation Sites Across Colorado National Forests Using A Traditional Risk Terrain Modeling Methodology, 2019, (PDF)

Using risk terrain modeling to predict homeless related crime in Los Angeles, California. 2019

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Risk: A Risk Terrain Modeling Approach in Stockholm, Sweden, 2018

Drug-related crime risk assessment and predictive policing based on risk terrain modeling, 2018

Forecasting Crime and Understanding its Causes. Applying Risk Terrain Modeling Worldwide, 2018

Forecasting Crime and Understanding its Causes. Applying Risk Terrain Modeling Worldwide, 2018

Risk terrain modeling for road safety: identifying crash-related environmental factors in the province of Cádiz, Spain, 2018

Predicting Property Crime Risk: an Application of Risk Terrain Modeling in Vancouver, Canada, 2018

Isolating Target And Neighbourhood Vulnerabilities In Crime Forecasting, 2018

Facilitators and Impediments to Designing, Implementing, and Evaluating Risk-Based Policing Strategies Using Risk Terrain Modeling: Insights from a Multi-City Evaluation in the United States, 2018

Terrorism Risk Forecasting by Ideology, 2018

Applying Crime Prediction Techniques to Japan: A Comparison Between Risk Terrain Modeling and Other Methods, 2018

Bus Stops and Violence, Are Risky Places Really Risky?, 2018

Risk Terrain Modeling and Socio-Economic Stratification: Identifying Risky Places for Violent Crime Victimization in Bogotá, Colombia, 2018

Predicting Dynamical Crime Distribution From Environmental and Social Influences, 2018

Utilizing a Risk of Crime Measure for Recidivism Research: Moving Environmental Corrections Forward, 2018

Enhancing Data-Driven Law Enforcement Efforts: Exploring how Risk Terrain Modeling and Conjunctive Analysis Fit in a Crime and Traffic Safety Framework, 2018

Risk Terrains of Illicit Drug Activities in Durham Region, Ontario, 2018

Risk terrain modeling for monitoring illicit drugs markets across Bogota, Colombia, 2018

Gang violence predictability: Using risk terrain modeling to study gang homicides and gang assaults in East Los Angeles, 2018

Examining interactive effects of characteristics of the social and physical environment on aggravated assault, 2018

Measuring the effect heterogeneity of police enforcement actions across spatial contexts, 2018

Place-based risk factors for aggravated assault across police divisions in Little Rock, Arkansas, 2018

Crime in Context: Utilizing Risk Terrain Modeling and Conjunctive Analysis of Case Configurations to Explore the Dynamics of Criminogenic Behavior Settings, 2017

The crime kaleidoscope: A cross-jurisdictional analysis of place features and crime in three urban environments, 2017

Risky places: An analysis of carjackings in Detroit, 2017

Forecasting Organized Crime Homicides: Risk Terrain Modeling of Camorra Violence in Naples, Italy, 2017

Close only counts in alcohol and violence: Controlling violence near late-night alcohol establishments using a routine activities approach, 2017

Risk terrain modeling predicts child maltreatment, 2016

Filling Terrorism Gaps: VEOs, Evaluating Databases, and Applying Risk Terrain Modeling to Terrorism, 2016 (PDF)

An analysis of spatial correlates of terrorism using risk terrain modeling, 2016

Place-based correlates of Motor Vehicle Theft and Recovery: Measuring spatial influence across neighbourhood context, 2016

Bringing the physical environment back into neighborhood research: The utility of RTM for developing an aggregate neighborhood risk of crime measure, 2016

Examining the Environmental Characteristics of Drug Dealing Locations, 2016

Vulnerability and Exposure to Crime: Applying Risk Terrain Modeling to the Study of Assault in Chicago, 2015

A terrain risk assessment method for military surveillance applications for mobile assets, 2015

Risk Terrain Modeling for Spatial Risk Assessment, 2015 (PDF)

Testing the Predictability of Crime Forecasting Models Using Spatio-Temporal Analysis and Risk Terrain Modeling, 2015

A Metric Comparison of Predictive Hot Spot Techniques and RTM, 2014

Spatial risk factors of felonious battery to police officers, 2014

Predictability of gun crimes: a comparison of hot spot and risk terrain modelling techniques, 2014

Evaluating the Temporal Parameters of Risk Terrain Modeling with Residential Burglary, 2013

“A Plague on both Your Houses?”: Risks, Repeats and Reconsiderations of Urban Residential Burglary, 2013

Assessing the Validity of Risk Terrain Modeling in a European City: Preventing Robberies in Milan, 2013

Kansas City’s Violent Crime Initiative: A Place- Based Evaluation of Location-Specific Intervention Activities During a Fixed Time Period, 2012

Joint Utility of Event-Dependent and Environmental Crime Analysis Techniques for Violent Crime Forecasting, 2012

Mapping the Spatial Influence of Crime Correlates: A Comparison of Operationalization Schemes and Implications for Crime Analysis and Criminal Justice Practice, 2011 (PDF)

Risk Clusters, Hotspots, and Spatial Intelligence: Risk Terrain Modeling as an Algorithm for Police Resource Allocation Strategies, 2010

Risk Terrain Modeling: Brokering Criminological Theory and GIS Methods for Crime Forecasting, 2010

Reports and Other Publications

Addressing Crime through Innovative Technology: Technology Implementation Guide, 2024

Innovative Strategies and Community Partnerships Drive Crime Reduction in New Orleans, 2024

CPE Publishes Redesigning Public Safety in the City of St. Louis: A Progress Report, 2023

ACIA Podcast – Risk Terrain Modeling, 2023

Risk Terrain Modeling – The Universe Just Answered Back, 2023

DA Williams, NOPD Meet To Discuss Risk Terrain Modeling In New Orleans, 2023

After illegal club shooting, Kansas City’s new task force targets problem businesses, 2023

Policing Productivity Review, 2023

NIJ Term of the Month, 2023

Associate Attorney General Vanita Gupta Delivers Remarks for the 2022 Safety and Justice Challenge, 2022

Data-Informed Community Engagement: The Newark Public Safety Collaborative, 2022

Data-informed community engagement: the Newark Public Safety Collaborative, 2021

Stockton receives $700K DOJ grant to study police reform in Atlantic City, Pleasantville, 2021

Data-informed community engagement: the Newark Public Safety Collaborative, 2021

NPSC Launches A Collective Effort to Reduce Auto Thefts Due to Car Idling, 2021

Camden County Police Department: Crime Analysis, Technical Assistance, and Consultation, 2020

Operation Safe Surroundings, 2019

Police Technologies for Place-Base Crime Prevention, 2019

Risk-Based Policing, 2018

Robbery Vulnerability in Burlington, NC, 2018

Data Modeling Helps Reduce Risk of Violent Crime in Atlantic City, 2018

The Rise of Big Data Policing: Surveillance, Race, and the Future of Law Enforcement, 2017

Community Violence as a Population Health Issue: Proceedings of a Workshop, 2017

Using Research to Move Policing Forward, 2016

The Practice of Research in Criminology and Criminal Justice, 2016

Big Data: A Report on Algorithmic Systems, Opportunity, and Civil Rights, 2016

Crime Hot Spots and Risk Terrain Modeling, 2016

Place Matters, 2016

Risk Terrain Modeling, 2016

Atlas of micro-trafficking and commercialization in Bogota, Pasto, Medellin, Cali, and Barranquilla, 2016 (Esp)

Leveraging Predictive Policing Algorithms to Restore Fourth  Amendment Protections in High-Crime Areas in a Post-Wardlow World, 2015, (PDF)

Micro Places – Kennedy et al., Colorado Springs, 2015

Micro Places – Kennedy et al., Glendale, 2015

Micro Places – Kennedy et al., Newark, 2015

Latin American cities study how to predict crime, 2015

Encyclopedia of Criminology and Criminal Justice, 2014

Translational Criminology and Counterterrorism, 2014

Hydrographic Risk Assessment for maritime Safety, 2013

A Multi-jurisdictional Test of Risk Terrain Modeling and a Place-based Evaluation of Environmental Risk-Based Patrol Deployment Strategies, 2012

Evidence-based Counterterrorism Policy, 2012

When Crime Appears, 2012

Forecasting Street Robberies, 2012

Geography and Public Safety, 2011 (PDF)

Crime and Terrorism Risk, 2011

Art School, Businesses and the Police: A Case Study

Media Coverage

New Wichita policing model aims to identify locations, not demographics, to lower gun crime, 2025

24-hour tire shop at center of criminal investigation seized and closed, 2025

Tremé crime hot spot seized by DA’s office, 2025

The St. Louis Public Safety Collaborative: Born from Frustration, Built on Hope, 2025

New Orleans presses for violent crime reduction by using data to pinpoint city’s hot spots, 2024

Former NOPD chief Michael Harrison joining the crime fight in New Orleans, 2024

Task force aimed to identify businesses with high number of violent incidents in KCMO, 2023

New crime solutions tool launching in St. Louis focusing on places crimes happen, not who’s committing them, 2023

Attorney General Merrick B. Garland Delivers Remarks at the NIJ National Research Conference, 2023

Dallas Crime Reduction Success with ‘Risk Terrain Modeling’ Program, 2022

Rutgers-Newark Public Safety Collaborative Strengthens Work During Pandemic, 2022

How Big Data Turned an Empty South Dallas Lot Into a Vibrant Plaza, 2022

Local leaders focus on St. Louis City Police staffing amid new study, 2022

St. Louis Redesigns Public Safety, 2022

Dallas’ Risk Terrain Modeling Looks for the Root Cause of Crime, 2022

Data and analytics enable community groups to become partners in public safety, 2021

Dallas has a common-sense plan to fight crime, 2021

Risky places: Combining data and community resources to reduce crime at risky places, 2021

Crime in Dallas isn’t as Random as you Think – Here’s How Police can Predict It, 2020

Public Safety Reconsidered, 2020

NIRO Knowledge Podcast, Episode 10, 2020

Rutgers Researchers Develop App to Protect First Responders from COVID-19, 2020

Dallas creates new police committee to reduce violent crime, 2020

Research in Brief: Risk-Based Policing in the Kansas City, Missouri, Police Department, 2020

Risk Terrain Modeling Tells You Why Crime Happens in Certain Environments, 2020

Atlantic City crime rooted in addicted people, abandoned homes, residents say, 2019

New Software to help KCPD Identify Crime Risk, 2019

KC police rolling out risk-based policing method to predict where crimes will happen, 2019

Atlantic City’s Violent Crime Decreases With Risk Based Policing, 2018

Expertos en seguridad visitaron Alta Gracia, 2018 (Espanol)

Predictive policing one reason given for Atlantic City’s violent crime drop last year, 2018

Atlantic City Story: A new way to combat crime, 2018

Can Atlantic City’s bold experiment take racial bias out of predictive policing?, 2017

Breakthrough: Predicting the Future, 2017

The Rise of Big Data Policing Podcast, 2017

Texas: Child Maltreatment Prediction by Block, 2017

Ordinance reduces violent crime near late-night bars by making owners part of solution, 2017

Texas doctor seeks to stop child abuse before it can happen, 2017

Focus on Places, Not People, to Prevent Crime | TEDxStocktonUniversity, 2016

RTM Exemplar Award Winners, 2017 (PDF)

Crime Prevention by the Numbers, 2016

XSEDE Announces Advanced Computing for Social Change Program, 2016

Places, Not People, Are the Focus of This New Crime-Fighting Data Analysis Tool, 2015

Atlantic County Prosecutor’s Office Press Release, 2015

RU-N Partners with Atlantic County Officials to Help Fight Crime, 2015

HBPD analyst helps patrol officers target crime, 2015

[Edmonton] harnesses big data to study crime, 2015

Researchers Create Crime Prediction Map App, 2014

Big Data for Social Good, 2014

Why Here and Why Now?