Identifying high-risk locations is only the first step toward preventing crime.
You ran the data. You identified the zones. You directed your officers to visit these areas for 10 to 15 minutes at random intervals, following the Koper Curve principle to the letter. You did everything “right” according to the standard playbook. Yet, when you look at the violent crime statistics six months later, the numbers haven’t moved.
This is a common frustration in modern law enforcement. The frustration usually stems from a fundamental misunderstanding of what hotspot policing actually is.
In the policing world, the concept is often associated with Christopher Koper’s 1995 research regarding the optimization of patrol time. The research makes a compelling case that random, intermittent presence in high-crime areas can reduce disorder. This is intuitive: if there is a pattern in location and time for the opportunity to commit a specific crime, the visible presence of law enforcement disrupts the typical risk-reward calculation.
However, Koper’s findings are often misapplied. We tend to view hotspot policing as a complete solution when it is actually just a logistical first step.
Deployment vs. Strategy
The most critical realization for a command staff to make is that hotspot policing is a deployment tool, not a crime prevention strategy.
Standard police work is excellent at answering “Who” and “Where.” We use data to find the “Where” (Hotspots) and intelligence to find the “Who” (Focused Deterrence/Repeat Offenders). These are vital Targeting Mechanisms. But telling an officer where to stand and who to look for is a deployment decision. It does not tell them how to change the environment that allowed the crime to occur.
To understand why initiatives fail, we have to look at the formula we are using.
The Common (Flawed) Formula:
[Accurate Targeting (Who/Where)] + [Presence/Enforcement] = Crime Reduction
This formula assumes that if we just find the right map coordinates or the right offenders, and apply pressure, the problem solves itself. But if the environment remains conducive to crime, you are merely engaging in a holding action.
The Holistic Formula:
[Accurate Targeting] + [Contextual Strategy] = Crime Prevention
In this formula, the “Hotspot” or the “Target List” simply tells you where to apply your resources. The “Strategy” is the specific method you use to alter the conditions on the ground. If your numbers are stagnant, you have likely solved the deployment variable while leaving the strategy variable blank.
Why Presence Alone Has Limits
To fix a failing initiative, we must recognize the limits of presence. We rely on the assumption that an offender’s risk-reward calculation is rational—that they see a patrol car and choose not to offend.
In practice, risk calculations are volatile.
Consider the “Reward” side. When offenders are motivated by addiction, immediate financial need, or personal conflict, the urgency of the reward can outweigh the perceived risk of enforcement. A patrol car turning the corner may interrupt behavior temporarily, but it rarely removes the underlying motivation.
Now consider the environmental risk side. If a hotspot exists in a poorly lit area with obstructed sightlines and multiple escape routes, offenders understand that patrol presence provides only intermittent surveillance.
When the motivation is high or the environment favors the offender, the mere presence of a police car will not deter crime. It will only displace it temporally.
The Missing Variable: The Stage, Not Just the Actors
This is where Place-Based investigations become vital. Traditional policing focuses heavily on the Actors (the suspects). Prevention focuses on the Stage (the location).
If you arrest a drug dealer but leave the corner unlit, neglected, and lacking community guardianship, the underlying opportunity remains. Another offender often fills the same role.
To make a hotspot go cold, you must marry your enforcement targeting with Place-Based Interventions. You must change the context of the location so that it is no longer useful for criminal activity.
Turning Presence Into Prevention
Once you accept that changing the place is as important as patrolling it, you can give your officers specific, actionable tactics. “Patrol the area” is too vague. Here are three specific strategies that transform a 15-minute presence into a prevention tool:
1. Environmental Tactics (CPTED)
Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED) is a strategy to alter the physical stage. Officers shouldn’t just scan for suspects; they should audit the environment for vulnerabilities.
- Lighting and Visibility: Dark corners and overgrown hedges provide cover. Identifying these issues and coordinating with city services to fix streetlights or trim vegetation increases “natural surveillance,” making offenders feel exposed.
- Access Control: If a hotspot is fueled by easy escape routes or cut-through paths, the strategy involves working with property owners to install fencing or barriers.
2. Educational Campaigns & Visible Signaling
Sometimes the best deterrent is a well-informed victim. If a hotspot is plagued by larcenies from autos, officers should be deploying educational materials. This could mean putting up temporary signage (“High Theft Area: Lock It or Lose It”) or distributing flyers to residents.
This serves a dual purpose: it hardens the targets (residents lock their doors), but it also signals to the offender that the community is on high alert, removing the element of surprise.
3. Outreach and Purpose-Driven Business Checks
A place is defined by the people who live and work there. Standard business checks often become a box-ticking exercise. Instead, they should be used to build social guardianship.
- The Active Business Check: Officers should step out and speak to clerks and owners, asking specifically about when and where problems occur. When business owners feel supported, they become the eyes and ears of the police, extending your presence even when the patrol car leaves.
- Neighborhood Engagement: Officers assigned to a hotspot should attend local neighborhood group meetings. When neighbors know each other and trust the police, they are more likely to intervene or call 911. This strengthens the “immune system” of the neighborhood.
Redefining What Success Looks Like
Ultimately, the goal of hotspot policing is not to create a permanent security zone; it is to rehabilitate the block so it no longer requires one.
When you rely on presence and arrests alone, you are essentially bailing water out of a leaking boat. You might keep it afloat, but you are working endlessly just to stay still. Place-based interventions plug the holes.
By combining the necessary work of enforcement (the “Who”) with strategies that change the environment (the “Where” and “How”), you alter the risk-reward calculation permanently. You take away the shadows where crime hides and the disorder that invites it. If your data is stagnant, stop blaming the map. Look at the context, and start fixing the environment that allows the crime to thrive.