Risk terrain modeling (RTM) is a diagnostic tool for crime prevention, it’s not a predictive algorithm. The only true measure of successful predictions is for crimes to occur where predicted, which is not in the public’s best interest. Predictive policing algorithms rely on past crime incidents to predict new crime events. If crimes are prevented, these algorithms won’t have enough input data and will stop working, or worse, they’ll become misleading.
RTM encourages effective and sustainable prevention efforts, and directs its analysis to dynamic conditions of the environment where crime events could occur. RTM focuses on geography, not the event.
RTM adds context to raw crime data, and is designed to help you understand and explain the reasons why crimes happen where they do. RTM diagnostics forge confidence in decisions to deploy resources to places most in need of crime prevention programming and services. This can involve multiple community stakeholders — beyond police, and encompass a wide range of activities to protect people and properties from various dangers affecting their general well-being.